Author: Senior Economist | As of July 20, 2025
1. Introduction
With Donald Trump’s return to the political spotlight and the potential for a second term, the United States is once again facing a sharp pivot in economic policy. Tax cuts, aggressive trade measures, and pressure on monetary policy are expected to shape the financial landscape. This report provides a forward-looking analysis of how these policies may influence investment strategies and the USD/JPY exchange rate over the coming quarters.
2. Key Trump Policies and Their Economic Impact
2.1 Tax Cuts (The OBBB Plan)
Trump is proposing additional tax cuts for both individuals and corporations. While this could trigger a boost in corporate earnings and equity markets, it risks widening the already large fiscal deficit and increasing pressure on the U.S. Treasury market.
2.2 Trade Protectionism
Trump has floated the idea of imposing tariffs of up to 60% on Chinese and EU imports. This would likely fuel cost-push inflation and ignite new trade wars, disrupting global supply chains and undermining business confidence.
2.3 Interference in Monetary Policy
The Trump campaign has been openly critical of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and is demanding rate cuts. Any perception that the Fed’s independence is compromised could weaken global trust in the U.S. dollar and Treasury assets.
3. Investment Strategy Scenarios
Scenario 1: Growth-Driven Optimism (Tax Cuts + Rate Cuts)
- Equities: Rally in S&P 500, tech and construction sectors surge
- Real Estate/REITs: Boosted by lower interest rates
- Commodities: Neutral, unless inflation accelerates
Scenario 2: Market Disruption (Trade War + Fed Pressure)
- Bonds: Long-term yields spike, Treasuries sell off
- Gold: Strong hedge against political and monetary instability
- Equities: Increased volatility, export-heavy sectors underperform
Scenario 3: Geopolitical Risk (China/Middle East Flashpoints)
- USD/JPY: Yen strengthens temporarily (safe haven demand)
- Defense and energy stocks: Likely to outperform
- Cash: Holds strategic value during uncertainty
4. Recommended Portfolio Allocation (Late 2025 – 2026)
| Asset Class | Weight | Commentary |
|---|---|---|
| U.S. Large Cap (Domestic-focused) | 35% | Major beneficiary of tax reform and deregulation |
| Japanese Equities (Export-driven) | 20% | Tailwind from yen depreciation |
| Select Emerging Markets | 10% | Choose nations less exposed to U.S. tariffs |
| Commodities (Gold, Oil) | 15% | Protection against inflation and instability |
| Short-duration U.S. Bonds | 10% | Safer amid rising long-term yields |
| Cash & Liquid Assets | 10% | Buffer for volatility and reinvestment opportunity |
5. USD/JPY Forecast (Q4 2025 – Q1 2026)
5.1 Key Drivers
| Factor | Directional Impact on USD/JPY |
|---|---|
| Fed Rate Cuts | Weakens USD |
| U.S. Fiscal Concerns | Weakens USD |
| Risk-On Markets | Weakens JPY |
| U.S.-Japan Rate Differentials | Supports USD |
| Geopolitical Tensions | Strengthens JPY temporarily |
5.2 Forecast Scenarios
| Scenario | Forecast Range | Description |
|---|---|---|
| Growth Rally | 155 – 165 | Tax cuts + rate cuts + stock rally |
| Market Unrest | 145 – 150 | Tariff conflict and Fed credibility issues |
| Safe Haven Flow | 140 – 145 (temporary) | Triggered by geopolitical shock |
| Status Quo | 150 – 155 | Balanced, range-bound market |
6. Strategic Summary for Investors
- The return of “Trumponomics” may create short-term growth momentum, but also long-term fiscal and geopolitical risks.
- Investors should seek balance between offensive and defensive positions, using gold, short bonds, and cash as volatility buffers.
- Expect high USD/JPY volatility, with a general upward bias, but be prepared for temporary reversals.
📚 References
- Federal Reserve Minutes (June 2025)
- U.S. Treasury Fiscal Outlook (Q2 2025)
- IMF World Economic Outlook (Spring 2025)
- Bloomberg, Reuters, WSJ – Economic and Political Reporting
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