Global Economy

The Strait of Hormuz crisis reveals the limits of American military power and the rising strategic importance of Iran. This report examines how Iran resisted U.S. pressure, strengthened its position through ties with China, Russia, and Pakistan, and forced the West to consider a multinational framework for maritime security. It also explores the implications for Japan’s energy security, global shipping, LNG markets, and the future of the Middle East order.

Ray Dalio sees 2026 not as an ordinary business-cycle downturn, but as a historic turning point in which debt, currency risk, geopolitical conflict, domestic division, and technological disruption converge. This report examines what his worldview means for the global economy, the U.S.-led order, Japan, investors, and corporate risk management.

The US yield curve is steepening as rate cut expectations clash with rising fiscal deficits and Treasury issuance, reshaping global funding conditions.

Recent divestments by Danish pension funds and China’s declining U.S. Treasury holdings signal a structural shift in global bond markets. This report analyzes term premium dynamics, reserve diversification, and long-term implications for investors and policymakers.

An in-depth economic analysis of France’s colonial legacy in Africa, examining the CFA franc, security ties, and the transition from dependency to sovereignty.

A senior economist’s analysis of S&P Global’s 2026 risk outlook. Explores credit erosion, geopolitical persistence, AI and climate risks, and why resilience—not growth—is the key economic theme.

An economist’s analysis of Trump’s Monroe Doctrine and how it raised geopolitical risk and long-term costs for China’s Belt and Road Initiative without stopping it outright.