Gold as a Safe-Haven Asset in an Uncertain Global Economy

Date: August 10, 2025
Audience: High-Net-Worth Investors in Japan

1. Macro Backdrop: Global Uncertainty Persists

Key Drivers of Uncertainty

United States: The 39% tariff on Swiss gold imports highlights a broader escalation of trade frictions. The Federal Reserve faces pressure to cut rates but remains cautious amid growing recession fears.
Europe: Inflation is easing but political fragmentation and energy security risks persist.
China: Real estate market stagnation continues, with heightened geopolitical tensions.
Geopolitics: U.S.–China rivalry, ongoing Russia sanctions, and Middle East instability create a multi-layered risk environment.

Japan’s Investment Landscape

Persistent yen weakness driven by interest rate differentials and structural current account factors.
The Nikkei remains buoyed by foreign inflows but is vulnerable to global risk-off events.
Government bond yields remain low, keeping real interest rates in negative territory.

2. Insights from the World Gold Council’s Latest Reports

Medium-Term Price Outlook

According to the WGC Gold Mid-Year Outlook 2025, gold surged roughly +26% in USD terms during H1 2025. The Council outlines three scenarios:

Baseline: Prices hold steady or rise modestly (+0–5%).
Risk Escalation: Stagflation or intensified geopolitical risks could drive prices up another +10–15%.
Risk Easing: A de-escalation of global risks could trigger a 12–17% correction from H1 gains.
Given the current fragmented geopolitical environment, the risk escalation scenario retains meaningful probability.

Demand Strength: Investment-Led Growth

The WGC’s Gold Demand Trends Q2 2025 shows:

Total demand (tonnage): +3% YoY
Value terms: +45% YoY, driven primarily by price increases.
ETF inflows: 170 tonnes in Q2; 397 tonnes in H1, the highest since 2020. Strong inflows from Asia and the U.S. offset declines in Europe.
Bar and coin demand: Up sharply in China (+44% YoY) and solid in India; Europe steady; U.S. down significantly.

Central Bank Purchases: Still Bullish

Q2 central bank purchases totaled 166 tonnes—down from Q1’s 243 tonnes but still 41% above the 2010–2021 quarterly average.
WGC surveys reveal 95% of central banks plan to increase gold reserves over the next 12 months, with 43% expecting to expand their own holdings.

3. Strategic Implications for Japanese High-Net-Worth Investors

Gold’s Uptrend Has Structural Support
Investment demand and sustained central bank buying provide a strong medium-term foundation for gold prices. The safe-haven premium is likely to persist while geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainty remains high.
Strategic Allocation for Currency Protection
With the yen’s purchasing power under pressure, gold can serve as an effective hedge, particularly when held in forms tied to non-yen currencies (USD- or CHF-denominated ETFs or bullion accounts).
Scenario Planning is Crucial
WGC’s three scenarios underscore the need for flexibility. A rapid de-escalation in geopolitical tensions could trigger sharp pullbacks, while escalation could push prices toward new all-time highs.

4. Conclusion

The latest WGC data confirms that gold remains one of the most reliable safe-haven assets in today’s fragmented global landscape. For Japanese high-net-worth investors, incorporating gold into a diversified portfolio is not merely a tactical play—it is a strategic safeguard against currency depreciation, geopolitical shocks, and systemic financial risks.
Maintaining exposure while preparing for both upside surges and correction scenarios will be key to capital preservation and long-term growth.