A Geopolitical-Resilient Strategy Inspired by Ray Dalio
Introduction: A New Geopolitical Era for Investors
The second half of 2025 marks the rise of a new geopolitical investment paradigm.
As the Trump administration pushes ceasefire demands on Russia and relations with China remain tense, investors face a volatile macro backdrop with:
- Persistent inflation
- Military tensions in Ukraine
- Fragmenting global supply chains
- Uncertain central bank policy
In this context, Ray Dalio’s “Principles” and his All-Weather investing philosophy offer a robust foundation for designing a resilient portfolio.
Ray Dalio’s Strategic Lens on Global Shifts
Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, identifies four structural forces shaping global markets:
| Force | Structural Shift | Investment Implication |
|---|---|---|
| Global Order | U.S.-China/Russia rivalry (Thucydides Trap) | Avoid geopolitical concentration |
| Monetary System | Debt monetization, declining fiat credibility | Own gold, real assets |
| Inflation Dynamics | Cost-push + war + fiscal deficits | Protect real returns |
| Technology Revolution | AI-led job & power shift | Balance tech exposure with caution |
The 2025 Macro Environment
🌐 Geopolitical Pressures
- Russia continues military action in Eastern Ukraine.
- Trump threatens 100% tariffs and sanctions if no ceasefire by August 8.
- Military signaling escalates with U.S. nuclear subs and Kremlin warnings.
- Energy, defense, and commodity markets are highly reactive.
📉 Economic Pressures
- Inflation remains sticky (~3%) despite slowing growth.
- The Fed is cautious on rate cuts amid price instability.
- Europe faces stagnation; Japan rides on yen depreciation.
The Dalio-Inspired “Geopolitical All-Weather Portfolio”
To weather this high-volatility regime, Dalio’s “Holy Grail” of uncorrelated diversification remains crucial.
🧾 Example Allocation (for 0,000 portfolio)
| Asset Class | Weight | Instruments (2025 Examples) | Purpose |
|---|---|---|---|
| Equities (Diversified) | 30% | Global Index ETFs + AI/Defense (QQQ, VTI, ITA) | Growth + Geopolitical premium |
| Bonds (Short-Mid) | 20% | U.S. Treasuries, TIPS | Defense against rate/inflation shocks |
| Commodities/Gold | 15% | GLD, DBC, physical metals | Inflation & currency hedge |
| FX Diversification | 10% | CHF, JPY, Gold-pegged assets | Protection from USD weakening |
| Alternatives | 10% | PE, AI Funds, Farmland REITs | Thematic resilience & alpha |
| Cash/Liquidity | 15% | USD deposits, MMFs, JPY | Dry powder for crashes |
Adapting the “Principles” to 2025 Scenarios
| Trigger | Likely Market Impact | Portfolio Response |
|---|---|---|
| Inflation Surge | Bonds fall, gold rises | Increase gold, reduce duration |
| Fed Rate Cuts | Stocks up, USD weakens | Add equities, hedge USD |
| War Escalation | Equities down, defense up | Hold defense stocks, commodity ETFs |
| Tech Breakthroughs | AI mega-cap rally | Selective tech exposure with caution |
Dalio’s principle: “Be prepared for the worst-case scenario, while allowing upside if the world goes well.”
Final Thoughts: Invest Like a System Builder
“He who lives by the crystal ball soon learns to eat ground glass.”
—Ray Dalio
The key lesson for 2025: Design a system—not a prediction.
- Embrace rational diversification
- Stay structurally patient
- Focus on long-term resilience, not short-term gains
This is not a market for gamblers. It’s a market for principled portfolio engineers.
コメント