Wrote By:Global Economist 2025/11
1. Introduction
Serbia today finds itself caught in a double dilemma: it aspires to join the European Union while remaining heavily dependent on Russia for energy and political support. Against this backdrop, the Trump family has moved to expand real estate ventures in Serbia, intertwining business ambitions, political leverage, and geopolitics. This report explores the Trump family’s real estate projects in Serbia and the potential deal-making dynamics between President Donald Trump and Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić.
2. Trump Real Estate Ventures in Serbia
2.1 Trump Tower Belgrade
- Overview: A luxury hotel and residential complex proposed on the site of the former Yugoslav Ministry of Defense headquarters.
- Scale: Approximately 175 hotel rooms and 1,500 residential units.
- Symbolism: The site was destroyed during the NATO bombing campaign in 1999, making it politically and historically sensitive.
- Partners: Jared Kushner’s company, Affinity Global Development, secured a 99-year lease for the land.
2.2 Donald Trump Jr.’s Visit
- In March 2025, Donald Trump Jr. visited Belgrade and met with President Vučić.
- While framed as an “economic exchange,” the visit was widely interpreted as an effort to push real estate projects and strengthen political ties.
2.3 Expansion Motives
- Serbia is seen as a strategic foothold in the Balkans.
- Compared with the EU, regulations are looser and political deals play a greater role in investment approvals.
- The Trump family could leverage Serbia’s reliance on Russia to present the U.S. as an alternative economic and political partner.
3. The Deal-Making Dynamic
3.1 Trump’s Strategy
- Sanctions as leverage: U.S. sanctions on Serbia’s Russian-owned oil company NIS (Gazprom subsidiary) serve as a bargaining chip.
- Exchange formula: Serbia shows steps to reduce Russian influence (e.g., symbolic divestment of Gazprom shares), and in return the Trump family’s real estate projects receive backing or leniency.
- Dual messaging: Domestically, Trump can appear tough on Russia; internationally, he can present himself as a pragmatic negotiator.
3.2 Vučić’s Strategy
- Political leverage: By embracing Trump-branded projects, Vučić signals closeness to Washington.
- Domestic boost: High-profile Trump investments can be showcased as evidence of foreign investor confidence and economic success.
- Balancing act: Vučić can maintain ties with Russia while using Trump projects as a bridge to the West.
3.3 The Core of the Deal
A likely formula: symbolic separation from Russian energy control + Trump family project approval. This reflects Trump’s hallmark “deal diplomacy”, where sanctions become negotiating tools and family business interests align with political strategy.
4. Risks and Challenges
4.1 Political Risks
- EU backlash: If Trump family projects are seen as political quid pro quo, it could harm Serbia’s EU accession talks.
- Russian pushback: Moves to sideline Gazprom may provoke pressure or retaliation from Moscow.
4.2 Legal and Institutional Risks
- Allegations of forged documents linked to the cultural heritage declassification of the military site.
- Resistance from civil groups, war veterans’ associations, and heritage preservation advocates.
4.3 Reputational Risks
- Perceptions that the Trump family is profiting from political power.
- Criticism that the project “commercializes” the memory of the 1999 NATO bombing.
5. Future Scenarios
| Scenario | Description | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Deal Achieved | Serbia symbolically reduces Russian control; Trump project advances | Short-term stability for Serbia, political “win” for Trump, Russia maintains de facto influence via proxies |
| Conflict Escalates | EU resistance and domestic opposition stall the project; sanctions escalate | Instability in Serbia, Trump family venture stalls |
| Gradual Compromise | Project scaled down or modified, e.g., memorial space included | Partial acceptance, reduced backlash, symbolic rather than full economic gain |
6. Conclusion
The Trump family’s business expansion in Serbia is far more than a real estate project. It reflects a convergence of U.S. sanctions diplomacy, Serbia’s dual-track strategy between East and West, and Trump’s signature deal-making approach.
For Vučić, welcoming Trump’s ventures offers political capital and a channel to Washington. For Trump, Serbia provides both leverage over Russia and an opportunity to integrate family business interests into foreign policy.
Yet, the risks are significant: EU accession delays, Russian backlash, heritage controversies, and corruption allegations. The outcome of these ventures will depend not only on political agreements but also on broader social legitimacy and institutional credibility within Serbia.
