— How Japan Must Respond to the New “Resource Security Race” —
Date: October 13, 2025
Author: Rare Intelligence Research / Geoeconomic Analysis Division
I. Executive Summary
The U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) has initiated a large-scale expansion—worth up to $1 billion—of its critical mineral stockpile, covering rare earths, tungsten, scandium, antimony, and related strategic metals.
This initiative, enabled by the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” (OBBBA) under the Trump administration, aims to rebuild U.S. supply-chain sovereignty and shield defense industries from Chinese export controls.
The move represents a structural shift toward resource securitization: minerals are now treated as instruments of national defense rather than commodities.
Consequently, global supply will tighten, prices will rise, and countries like Japan—deeply dependent on imported critical materials—must respond quickly to avoid industrial and strategic vulnerability.
II. U.S. Objectives and Institutional Framework
1. Strategic Context
- China’s export restrictions (since July 2025) on rare earths and magnet materials triggered a U.S. policy response.
- The OBBBA authorizes fiscal expansion for energy, mining, and defense-related infrastructure.
- The Pentagon is coordinating its effort through three instruments:
- National Defense Stockpile (NDS) under the Strategic & Critical Materials Stock Piling Act;
- Defense Production Act (DPA) Title III for industrial capacity investment;
- Defense Logistics Agency (DLA) procurement programs.
2. Recent Procurement Activity (Sept–Oct 2025)
| Mineral | Estimated Value | Key Suppliers | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cobalt | up to $500 M | Canada, Japan | High-grade alloy use, 5-year term |
| Antimony | $245 M | U.S., Australia | Ammunition / defense alloys |
| Scandium | $40 M | Rio Tinto (Australia) | Sole-source contract |
| Tantalum / Tungsten | ≈ $200 M | Australia, South America | Electronics / semiconductors |
The DoD clarified that stockpiled minerals are reserved for national defense and will not be released to civilian markets under normal conditions—implying sustained upward pressure on civilian supply chains.
III. Global Market Implications
1. Supply Constriction
- With both China restricting exports and the U.S. absorbing free-market inventory, non-Chinese availability is collapsing.
- Scandium oxide and antimony stocks could shrink by 20–30 % of free-trade volume.
- Market estimates (Q4 2025): Sc oxide +42 % YoY, Sb metal +28 % YoY.
2. Capital Flows
- The DoD’s DPA Title III funding redirects billions toward North American and Australian mines—diverting investor focus away from Asia.
- U.S. defense primes (GM Defense, Lockheed, Tesla Defense Division) are being integrated directly into these supply chains, competing with Japanese offtakers for feedstock.
3. Geopolitical Realignment
- The U.S.–China resource bifurcation encourages India, Australia, and ASEAN to form alternative sourcing alliances.
- If Japan remains a neutral “price-taker” rather than a policy participant, it risks supply-priority lag, being served last in crisis periods.
IV. Japan’s Strategic Response: Four Policy Pillars
Pillar 1 – National Stockpile Expansion & Legal Redesign
- Integrate Japan’s strategic and industrial reserves under a new Economic Security Stockpile Law.
- Extend reserve coverage from 30 to 60 days of domestic consumption.
- Introduce tax credits / subsidies for corporate co-stockpiling and shared logistics with JOGMEC.
Pillar 2 – JBIC and Financial Instruments
- Establish a “Critical Minerals Facility” (≈ ¥1 trillion / US$7 B) co-financed by JBIC, JOGMEC, and private banks.
- Eligible: rare earths, tungsten, scandium, antimony.
- Instruments: pre-offtake loans, stockpile credits, USD-hedged term finance.
- Link JBIC loans with U.S. DPA Title III projects to secure joint rights and prevent unilateral U.S. exclusivity.
Pillar 3 – Industrial Autonomy
- Accelerate domestic recycling (“urban mining”) and material-substitution R&D—e.g., Al-Sc alloys, Fe-N magnets, Co-free cathodes.
- Target: raise Japan’s internal resource-circulation ratio from 25 % to 40 % by 2028.
Pillar 4 – Diplomatic Coordination
- Propose a Quad Critical Minerals Resilience Accord (Japan-U.S.-Australia-India) to share stockpile data and emergency release rules.
- Negotiate mutual recognition between Japan’s framework and the EU Critical Raw Materials Act.
- Partner with ASEAN to co-develop logistics and refining nodes for non-Chinese supply routes.
V. Strategic Outlook
“Resources are becoming the new currency of power.”
Washington’s stockpiling program marks the beginning of a “Resource Cold War.”
Minerals now underpin geopolitical influence and economic sovereignty.
If Japan delays response, escalating input costs in EVs, defense systems, and semiconductors will erode competitiveness.
Yet by synchronizing its stockpile, finance, technology, and diplomacy, Japan can reposition itself not as a competitor but as the indispensable coordination hub within the allied supply chain.
VI. Policy Recommendations (Summary Table)
| Domain | Action | Lead Entity | Timing |
|---|---|---|---|
| National Stockpile | Double strategic reserves (60 days coverage) | METI / JOGMEC | FY 2026 Budget |
| Finance | Launch “Critical Minerals Facility” | JBIC + Private Banks | Early 2026 |
| R&D | Support recycling & substitution tech | NEDO / AIST | 2025–2028 |
| Diplomacy | Propose Quad Stockpile Accord | MOFA / MOD | By G7 2026 |
| Industry | Long-term offtake guarantees for suppliers | METI / JBIC | Ongoing |
VII. Conclusion
The Pentagon’s $1 billion critical-minerals buildup signifies a permanent militarization of resource policy.
In this emerging landscape, supply chains are not merely commercial systems—they are defense assets.
Japan must act decisively to avoid strategic dependence:
- Stockpile to buffer against shocks.
- Finance to secure upstream access.
- Innovate to reduce material vulnerability.
- Diplomatically coordinate to anchor the rules.
By executing these four pillars in concert, Japan can transform the current resource confrontation into an opportunity—to stand as a small but resilient powerhouse in the era of strategic minerals.
Prepared by:
Rare Intelligence Research – Geoeconomics and Critical Minerals Analysis Unit
Sources: Financial Times, Reuters, U.S. DoD procurement notices, CSIS,
