Global Economy Why Japan Is a “Silent Systemic Risk”
An economist’s analysis of Japan through Ray Dalio’s Big Cycle framework, explaining why yen stability, JGB functionality, and dollar liquidity could converge into a systemic risk.
2025-12
Global Economy 
Global Economy Ray Dalio’s Framework for the Next Systemic Crisis
Ray Dalio explains why the next global financial crisis will emerge from the convergence of debt limits, political fragmentation, and geopolitical conflict—beyond traditional Lehman-style shocks.
Global Economy Geopolitical Risk as a Structural Macro-Financial Variable
The ECB’s reverse stress test signals a paradigm shift in bank supervision, elevating geopolitical risk from a tail event to a core macro-financial variable shaping capital, liquidity, and systemic stability.
GOLD Global Reserve Currency Outlook
This analysis explores how the U.S. dollar is transforming amid rising fiscal burdens, the weaponization of finance, U.S.–China strategic rivalry, and amplified global liquidity cycles. A must-read for economists and institutional investors.
AI Taiwan Contingency: Ten Plausible Scenarios
This report outlines ten realistic Taiwan contingency scenarios, explaining how military, cyber, economic, and political pressures could shape a future crisis between China, Taiwan, and the United States.
AI U.S. AI Semiconductor Policy Shifts from “Blockade” to “Managed Competition”
This report analyzes why U.S. policymakers are shifting from AI chip bans to controlled exports, how China intends to leverage H200 access, and what these changes mean for NVIDIA, data centers, and semiconductor markets.
China Japan–China Political Tensions Intensify
Japan and China entered a new phase of political tension following a dangerous radar lock incident and Beijing’s suspension of cultural exchanges. Our analysis explores military escalation risks, Taiwan-driven strategic friction, and consequences for global markets and supply chains.
Global Economy Russia–India Strategic Rapprochement and the Reconfiguration of Energy Geopolitics
Putin’s vow to guarantee continuous oil shipments to India marks a major shift in global energy geopolitics. Learn how Russia–India cooperation is reshaping supply chains, sanctions dynamics, and emerging-market risk.
未分類 Geopolitics of Rare Earths: China’s Evolving Strategy
Learn how China’s export controls, selective supply policies, and processing dominance are reshaping global rare earth geopolitics—and what Japan must do to diversify and protect its critical industries.
Global Economy Geopolitical Macro Strategy Report
How the EU–G7 maritime sanctions on Russian oil could spark a new inflation cycle, drive oil above $130, disrupt shipping insurance, and shift global monetary policy. A must-read geopolitical macro strategy report.
Global Economy 🌎Geopolitical Reconfiguration in Iraq’s Oil Sector
This report explains why the U.S. is targeting Lukoil’s Iraqi assets, how sanctions are transforming Middle Eastern energy geopolitics, and what it means for Asia.
Global Economy The Global Standing of the Japanese Yen and the Structural Forces Driving Further Depreciation
Central banks now hold only 5–6 percent of global reserves in yen, reflecting Japan’s declining influence in the international monetary system. This report analyzes the structural forces driving long-term yen depreciation.
Global Economy The Rising Importance of Gold in Global Foreign Reserve Portfolios
Central banks worldwide are increasing gold reserves as geopolitical tensions rise and confidence in dollar assets weakens. This report explains the structural drivers behind gold’s resurgence in global reserve portfolios.