ー From Russian Control to a Sanctions-Driven Turning Point ー
Serbia’s national energy player NIS (Naftna Industrija Srbije) has entered one of the most significant transitions in its history. For more than a decade, the company operated under a dual-control model led by Russia’s Gazprom Neft and the Serbian government. But in 2025, that structure is being forced into rapid transformation.
U.S. sanctions, the shutdown of key oil supply routes, and the requirement that Russian shareholders fully exit the company are pushing NIS into an unprecedented restructuring phase.
This article explains how NIS currently operates, what pressures it faces, and where the company may be heading.
What Is NIS?
Serbia’s Core Integrated Energy Company
NIS is Serbia’s largest integrated oil and gas company, covering:
- Upstream exploration and production
- Refining at the Pančevo refinery
- A nationwide fuel retail network
- Export of refined petroleum products
With roughly 5,000 employees, NIS is not just a commercial entity. It is a cornerstone of Serbia’s energy security and one of the country’s most influential exporters.
Ownership Structure: A Russian-Serbian Joint Control Model
As of 2025, the shareholder structure remains:
- Gazprom Neft (Russia): approx. 45%
- Gazprom-linked investment company: approx. 11%
- Government of Serbia: approx. 30%
- Minority investors: the remainder
Although technically a listed company, NIS has long been governed by a “Russian capital + Serbian state” dual-pillar system.
This model is now under severe pressure.
U.S. Sanctions: NIS Moves Into the Direct Target Zone
In early 2025, the U.S. Treasury (OFAC) expanded sanctions on the Russian oil sector. NIS was swept into the sanctions regime as an entity effectively controlled by Gazprom Neft.
Initially, NIS operated under a temporary waiver permitting limited activities. But after October 2025, these waivers expired and full sanctions took effect. The consequences were immediate.
1. Oil Supply Routes Blocked
Croatia’s state pipeline operator JANAF halted crude shipments to NIS.
This pushed the Pančevo refinery into shutdown or reduced-cycle mode due to insufficient feedstock.
2. Payment and Banking Restrictions
Serbian banks suspended transactions with NIS to comply with OFAC rules.
This disrupted procurement, international payments, and regular operational flows.
3. Government Intervention to Maintain Fuel Supply
To prevent domestic shortages, the Serbian government began tapping emergency reserves and arranging urgent fuel imports, temporarily bypassing NIS’s weakened supply chain.
The company is now operating in an emergency mode, relying heavily on state intervention.
Washington’s Condition: “Full Russian Exit”
The U.S. Treasury has made its condition very clear:
All Russian ownership must leave NIS.
Gazprom Neft was granted a temporary license to find a buyer for its stake, typically within a strict time window.
In response, Russian stakeholders have signaled a willingness to relinquish control, marking a major departure from their long-standing influence in Serbia’s energy sector.
Serbia’s Response: Preparing for a Post-Russian NIS
Belgrade’s priority is to secure uninterrupted fuel supply and energy stability.
To achieve this, the government is pursuing multiple paths simultaneously:
1. Seeking Third-Party Buyers
Offers and consultations have reportedly been made with regional energy companies, including Hungary’s MOL, regarding potential acquisition of the Russian stake.
2. Preparing for Possible Nationalization
The Serbian government has begun drafting legal amendments that would allow the state to buy NIS shares directly if necessary.
This “nationalization option” is effectively a contingency plan for severe disruptions.
3. Considering New Strategic Partnerships
Belgrade is exploring joint-venture models with European and Middle Eastern energy players to rebuild NIS under a sanction-compatible structure.
Collectively, these moves aim to stabilise NIS while aligning with U.S. and EU regulatory frameworks.
How Is NIS Operating Today?
A Transitional Structure Under Sanctions Pressure
In practical terms, the company now functions under three overlapping layers:
- Legally:
Still structured as a joint-control entity with Russian majority influence. - Operationally:
Due to sanctions, supply chain breakdowns, and banking restrictions, NIS operates in a state-supported emergency system, not a normal commercial mode. - Strategically:
Russia’s exit is assumed to be inevitable, and Serbia is preparing for:- Third-country acquisition
- Direct state acquisition
- A new JV framework with non-Russian partners
In short, NIS is moving from a Russia-centered energy company to a Serbia-led entity under a new geopolitical equilibrium.
What Comes Next?
Key Questions for Serbia and the Wider Balkan Region
The restructuring of NIS goes far beyond corporate governance. It may reshape the energy landscape of the entire Western Balkans.
Key strategic questions include:
- Who will replace Russia as the dominant shareholder?
- How quickly can refinery operations and supply routes be normalized?
- Will Serbia pivot closer to EU-aligned energy policies?
These issues will determine not only the future of NIS but also Belgrade’s geopolitical alignment and regional influence.
Conclusion
In 2025, NIS is undergoing the most dramatic restructuring since its partial privatization.
U.S. sanctions have forced Russia’s withdrawal, while Serbia is urgently redesigning the company’s governance, supply system, and long-term strategic direction.
The transformation of NIS is more than a corporate change; it is a national security and geopolitical realignment process.
The next several months will be decisive in shaping Serbia’s energy future and its position within the broader European energy architecture.
