Introduction
As we approach the September 2025 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, expectations for the direction of U.S. interest rates are sharpening. This report analyzes current economic indicators, market forecasts, and Fed signals to craft a nuanced projection for rates beyond September. The baseline scenario features a modest easing cycle, balanced by ongoing inflation risks and data dependency.
Current Rate Environment
- The effective federal funds rate (EFFR) remains steady at approximately 4.33% as of late August 2025. The official target range stands at 4.25–4.50%. Reuters+15FRED+15Kiplinger+15ニューヨーク連邦準備銀行+2YCharts+2
- The September 16–17 FOMC meeting coincides with updated projections via the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP). 連邦準備制度理事会+2バロンズ+2
Market and Analyst Expectations
- Futures markets are pricing in an 85–90% probability of a 25 bp cut in September. Kiplinger+15バロンズ+15マーケットウォッチ+15
- Fed Governor Christopher Waller supports initiating cuts in September and anticipates further easing over the next 3–6 months, targeting a neutral rate near 3.0%. Reuters+1
- A Reuters economist survey reveals that 61% expect a September cut, with most anticipating one or two cuts total this year. A minority reckons the Fed might hold rates steady. ゴールドマン・サックス+3Reuters+3バロンズ+3
- Goldman Sachs projects multiple 25 bp cuts through late 2025 into early 2026, with a terminal rate of 3.0–3.25%. ウィキペディア+3ゴールドマン・サックス+3フェッドプライムレート+3
Key Economic Dynamics
- Inflation: Core PCE inflation stands near 2.9% YoY, above the Fed’s 2% target. Tariff-driven price pressures complicate the outlook. The Times
- Labor Market: Weakening job growth data in August has reinforced rate-cut bets, though the upcoming labor report remains critical. フィナンシャル・タイムズ+3Reuters+3Reuters+3
- Economy Outlook: Some analysts warn that cutting rates amid a still-robust economy risks overstimulation. マーケットウォッチ
Economists’ Rate Outlook
Baseline Scenario:
- September 2025: 25 bp cut, bringing the target range to 4.00–4.25%.
- December 2025: Possibly one more 25 bp cut, should labor and inflation data soften.
- End of 2025 Range: 3.75–4.00%, consistent with market pricing and Waller’s guidance. YCharts+5Reuters+5ウィキペディア+5Reuters
Bullish Scenario (Soft Data):
- Additional cuts in Q1 2026, potentially reaching 3.0–3.25% by mid‑2026 if inflation moderates and labor slack grows. ゴールドマン・サックスReuters
Cautious Scenario (Inflation Surprise):
- If core inflation persists (e.g., >2.8%) and job data rebounds, the Fed may pause after one cut – maintaining at 4.00–4.25% into year-end.
Summary Table
| Timeframe | Rate Path | Key Drivers |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 2025 | 25 bp cut → 4.00–4.25% | Weak labor, inflation above target, high market odds |
| Dec 2025 | Potential second 25 bp cut | Weakening labor/inflation; Waller’s multi-cut scenario |
| Q1–Q2 2026 | Trend toward 3.0–3.25% | If soft inflation and labor persist |
| Alternative | Hold at 4.00–4.25% | If inflation stays sticky or labor market shows resilience |
References
- Fed’s Waller sees rate cuts over next 3-6 months, starting in September (Reuters)
- Markets Are Betting on a Flurry of Rate Cuts. They’re Often Wrong. (Barron’s)
- Wall Street’s September Fed rate cut bets still hinge on next data (Financial Times)
- Why the Fed May Cut Rates Earlier Than Expected (Goldman Sachs)
- US Fed to cut rates in September, once more this year, say most economists (Reuters)
- Wall St Week Ahead: US jobs data poses test for rate cut hopes (Reuters)
- Rise in US inflation complicates debate over rate cuts (The Times)
- Yes, rate cuts will be good for stocks – but here’s why it means the Fed will be stimulating an economy that doesn’t need it (MarketWatch)
- History of Federal Open Market Committee actions (Wikipedia)
- FOMC Meeting Calendar 2025 (Federal Reserve)
