global-economy

Japan

The Nature of the Shock to the Japanese Economy from Rising Interest Rates

Japan’s interest rate hike marks a structural shift, not a financial crisis.This economist’s report explains the real shock, sector impacts, and long-term implications for growth, yen dynamics, and fiscal discipline.
Global Economy

World Economic Turning Point in 2026

In 2026, Japan faces a structural economic turning point as monetary normalization, China risk, and geopolitical fragmentation converge. This report analyzes the silent selection reshaping Japan’s growth model beyond zero interest rates.
Global Economy

Why Japan Is a “Silent Systemic Risk”

An economist’s analysis of Japan through Ray Dalio’s Big Cycle framework, explaining why yen stability, JGB functionality, and dollar liquidity could converge into a systemic risk.
Global Economy

Ray Dalio’s Framework for the Next Systemic Crisis

Ray Dalio explains why the next global financial crisis will emerge from the convergence of debt limits, political fragmentation, and geopolitical conflict—beyond traditional Lehman-style shocks.
Global Economy

Geopolitical Risk as a Structural Macro-Financial Variable

The ECB’s reverse stress test signals a paradigm shift in bank supervision, elevating geopolitical risk from a tail event to a core macro-financial variable shaping capital, liquidity, and systemic stability.
GOLD

Global Reserve Currency Outlook

This analysis explores how the U.S. dollar is transforming amid rising fiscal burdens, the weaponization of finance, U.S.–China strategic rivalry, and amplified global liquidity cycles. A must-read for economists and institutional investors.
AI

Taiwan Contingency: Ten Plausible Scenarios

This report outlines ten realistic Taiwan contingency scenarios, explaining how military, cyber, economic, and political pressures could shape a future crisis between China, Taiwan, and the United States.
AI

U.S. AI Semiconductor Policy Shifts from “Blockade” to “Managed Competition”

This report analyzes why U.S. policymakers are shifting from AI chip bans to controlled exports, how China intends to leverage H200 access, and what these changes mean for NVIDIA, data centers, and semiconductor markets.
China

Japan–China Political Tensions Intensify

Japan and China entered a new phase of political tension following a dangerous radar lock incident and Beijing’s suspension of cultural exchanges. Our analysis explores military escalation risks, Taiwan-driven strategic friction, and consequences for global markets and supply chains.
Global Economy

Russia–India Strategic Rapprochement and the Reconfiguration of Energy Geopolitics

Putin’s vow to guarantee continuous oil shipments to India marks a major shift in global energy geopolitics. Learn how Russia–India cooperation is reshaping supply chains, sanctions dynamics, and emerging-market risk.
未分類

Geopolitics of Rare Earths: China’s Evolving Strategy

Learn how China’s export controls, selective supply policies, and processing dominance are reshaping global rare earth geopolitics—and what Japan must do to diversify and protect its critical industries.
Global Economy

Geopolitical Macro Strategy Report

How the EU–G7 maritime sanctions on Russian oil could spark a new inflation cycle, drive oil above $130, disrupt shipping insurance, and shift global monetary policy. A must-read geopolitical macro strategy report.
Global Economy

🌎Geopolitical Reconfiguration in Iraq’s Oil Sector

This report explains why the U.S. is targeting Lukoil’s Iraqi assets, how sanctions are transforming Middle Eastern energy geopolitics, and what it means for Asia.