2026-05

Russia

Kaliningrad, Drone Incursions, and NATO’s Eastern Front: Is Russia Moving Closer to a Direct Clash with NATO?

Russia’s drone incursions near NATO territory and rising tensions around Kaliningrad reveal a dangerous new phase in European security. This analysis examines whether Russia and NATO are moving closer to direct confrontation.
China

Why UK Cannot Cut China Out of Critical Minerals — The Age of Managed Dependency

メタディスクリプションThe UK cannot fully decouple from China’s critical mineral supply chains. This report explains why managed dependency, data protection, and supply-chain visibility are now essential for economic security.
China

What the Shanxi Coal Mine Gas Explosion RevealsーEnergy Security, Industrial Safety, and Local Governance Risks in China

Executive SummaryThe gas explosion at the Liushenyu coal mine in Shanxi Province should not be viewed merely as an indus...
Global Economy

The Hormuz Crisis and the Limits of American Power

The Strait of Hormuz crisis reveals the limits of American military power and the rising strategic importance of Iran. This report examines how Iran resisted U.S. pressure, strengthened its position through ties with China, Russia, and Pakistan, and forced the West to consider a multinational framework for maritime security. It also explores the implications for Japan’s energy security, global shipping, LNG markets, and the future of the Middle East order.
Global Economy

Ray Dalio’s View of 2026: The Global Economy Is Facing Not Just a Downturn, but a Breakdown of Order

Ray Dalio sees 2026 not as an ordinary business-cycle downturn, but as a historic turning point in which debt, currency risk, geopolitical conflict, domestic division, and technological disruption converge. This report examines what his worldview means for the global economy, the U.S.-led order, Japan, investors, and corporate risk management.